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كاتب الموضوع :
حمود راشد ابن عجوين
المنتدى :
المرحله الابتدائيه
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expired, Mostly crushed by architecture; as many as 700,000 people displaced or homeless; 130,000 structures largely damaged or destroyed; And immediate losses exceeding $125 billion a forecast that rivals the mayhem free by Hurricane Katrina and the breaching of the New Orleans levees.
the brand study, branded "for the Big One Strikes Again, Uses the best offers of the size and strength of the April 18, 1906, scenario, any mone specificgnitude7.9 quake and ensuing firestorm that killed the 3,000 people and destroyed vast swaths of frisco.
your computer simulation study, To be released today in San Francisco at the beginning of the largestever conference about earthquakes, Concludes that a repeat of the 1906 quake may well be more devastating than the original because the region is now more densely settled, The value of real estate is much higher and the population is 10 times larger.
The 1906 earthquake ran along 300 miles of the San Andreas Fault and was felt in an area that today has 10 million home buyers and 3.5 million constructions valued at $1 trillion. the general public and property are within 25 miles of the fault line.
margaret Lou Zoback, A senior research scientist with nation Geological Survey in Menlo Park, Calif, Reviewed the investigation and endorses its forecast. She says what leaps out at her is how vulnerable the urban core of the Bay Area is the cities of bay area, Berkeley and Oakland because numerous residents live in michael kors apartments and houses built before building codes were tightened in 1970. (wedding party many units are rentcontrolled apartments, states, Landlords have few rewards to seismic retrofit.)
"when you're talking, potentially, with regard to 400,000 to positively 700,000 people displaced, Zoback stated that, "Where are they using go, When roads is likely to be impassable, When difficulties northsouth freeways are damaged, when eastwest tunnels are closed due to landslides? as, individuals are trustworthy bridges stand up, You may be unable to get to them,
The study was conducted by architectural engineer Charles Kircher and his colleagues, working 2,000 census areas, Which detail the sorts of buildings; what their age is, Size and love; And people in each tract. The team michael kors factory also tried to identify how many of the buildings louis vuitton outlet were built with the most vulnerable materials and weaker construction methods, by way of example unreinforced masonry and "Tuck from" Garage residences, Which Kircher labeled "Killer buildings,
Perhaps for a simple reason. A building's ability to face up to violent shaking is fairly well understood by engineers. Although the damaging structures represent only 5 percent of the region's building stock, Their collapse during the simulated Big One landed half of the death toll. A daytime quake is widelly seen as more deadly because michael kors outlet more people would be at work around the killer buildings, Whereas during a evening event people would be at home in their beds. The simulation anticipates between 800 and 3,400 demise, dependant on time and other variables. The model does not identify which sufferer buildings might fall, but rather gives averages over a census tract of the likely extent of the damage.
"I feel confident that michael kors discount our estimates are out of the ballpark, described Kircher, Whose study was sponsored by several scientific societies and the 100th commemoration Earthquake Conference. For a comparison, Kircher celebrity fad, a new 1995 earthquake in Kobe, the japanese, Killed more 5,000 guests, and quite deaths were buildingrelated. But Kircher cautions that his study is just computing machine models, Not success.
The semiapocalyptic condition sounds about right to Richard Eisner, Coastal regional administrator for California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's Office christian louboutin replica of michael kors wholesale Emergency sites.
"into 1906, san fran was the largest city west of the Rockies. we 400,000 people in the hub, Eisner told. "Today we have 7 million in the san francisco bay area. And splits of a disaster of this magnitude in an urban area are significant,
Eisner's office focuses less on the shortterm survival of residents in a massive earthquake that's the province of local governments and more on the longterm end result of a disaster.
"The recovery of 1906 held up for a decade, He highlights. "we are, a lot of us, Observing and starting the recovery of the Gulf Coast. And the level of complexity of that recovery is what we need to be getting yourself ready for,
Seismologists generally agree that a repeat of a 1906size earthquake is unavoidable, Though where and when along the fault are unknown. Geological Survey reported a 62 percent opportunity of a magnitude6.7 earthquake or greater playing in Bay Area within 30 years. that has to be about the size of the 1994 Northridge quake in Los Angeles, Which killed 57 people and caused $20 thousand in damage. An earthquake how big the the 1906 event would be far more destructive, michael kors handbags But experts say such quakes are relatively rare. Zoback of the Geological Survey says a Big One appears to be occur every 200 to 250 christian louboutin outlet years.
Chris poland, Chairman of the 100th loved-one's birthday Earthquake Conference, visits the centennial as a
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08-28-2012
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